Elderly care could cost Scotland £8bn, warns public health minister

SCOTLAND’S care bill could rise to £8 billion in just over two decades unless changes are made, it was revealed yesterday.

The cost of providing care is currently £4.5 billion, but with an increasingly elderly population that could rise by £1.1 billion by 2016 and by £3.5bn by 2031, if the current set-up is maintained.

Public health minister Shona Robison yesterday said dealing with the growing number of older people was one of “our biggest national challenges” and “radical” action was needed.

Ms Robison stressed the Scottish Government’s commitment to providing free personal care for the elderly, stating: “Let me be absolutely clear – we are firmly committed to free personal care and to making sure every older person who needs care gets it.”

However, she added: “Our older population is likely to increase by around two-thirds in the next two decades, and as a country we will need to change the ways in which we deliver care.

“Now is the time to have this national debate. Scotland has already been ahead of the game in introducing free personal care – we need to be bold once again.

“The solutions are there, but we must start taking action now.”

Ms Robison said about 90,000 older people received some kind of care – whether that be in their own home, a care home or long-term hospital care. She went on: “Estimates suggest our older population is going to rise by 21 per cent between 2006 and 2016, and by 62 per cent come 2031. More of the same would mean an extra 23,000 people needing care by 2016.

“Together with growing our economy and tackling climate change, preparing for an increasingly ageing population is one of our biggest national challenges.”

Public meetings across Scotland are being planned as part of the government’s Reshaping Care for Older People programme.

Ms Robison also said consideration needed to be given to how telecare technology, which helps older people to remain in their homes, could be expanded.

Local authority leaders said more money would be needed to pay for care for the elderly in the future.

Councils provide many of the care services elderly people rely on, and Ronnie McColl, health and wellbeing spokesman for Cosla, warned health and social work budgets could be left “creaking under the pressure of declining public finance and rising demand for care”.

He said: “We are anticipating cuts of 12 per cent across the next three years, and yet the number of frail older people requiring care and support is set to radically increase. This is uncharted territory, and we will have to look at radical measures to weather the storm.

“Health and local government will need to look at streamlining services, deliver more and greater efficiencies, more effectively share resources and people, and think more carefully about our investment decisions.

“But even if we do all of this without mistake, if we squeeze every last iota of inefficiency from our system, we will still need more money to support older people’s care into the future.”

Cosla president Pat Watters also forecast “tough political decisions” would need to be made.

He said: “Given the financial problems we are facing into the future, how we protect services to the most vulnerable leaves both ourselves and central government with tough political decisions to be faced and indeed taken.

“As a matter of some urgency, we need to look at how we provide care into the future – tough decisions in this area are just around the corner – and these cannot be ignored or shied away from.”