Hundreds Of Thousands ‘To Die Early As Diabetes Rockets By 60%’

Scotland is “sleepwalking” into a diabetes epidemic that will cause hundreds of thousands of people to die young, experts warn today. Research from Edinburgh University reveals the number of people diagnosed with type-2 diabetes will soar by 60 per cent within the next ten years.

The situation is mainly due to the obesity crisis, with current estimates showing a quarter of the population is likely to be classed as obese by 2018.

Doctors say they are treating an increasing number of teenagers for type-2 diabetes, which traditionally only develops in older people.

Being overweight is the biggest factor towards contracting type-2 diabetes, which can reduce a patient’s life expectancy by at least eight years. It can also lead to blindness, heart attacks, strokes and kidney failure.

About 250,000 Scots already suffer from the disease which, with all its problems, costs the NHS nearly £1 billion a year – almost a tenth of its budget.

Dr Sarah Wild, a senior lecturer in epidemiology and public health, who carried out the study, will tell BBC Radio Scotland’s The Investigation programme, broadcast today, that the strain on the NHS will get worse.

“The bad news is that instances of diabetes are going to go up in the future. We expect that by 2018 there will be about 60 per cent more people with diabetes, just over half as many again as there were in 2002,” Ms Wild said.

“Being overweight is the biggest factor in the number of younger people being diagnosed with type-2 diabetes.”

Nine in ten diabetics have type-2 diabetes, which is caused by the pancreas being unable to control the level of sugar in the bloodstream. In most cases, the disease can be prevented by having a healthy diet and regular exercise.

The less common type-1 – or juvenile diabetes – can leave sufferers needing insulin injections from their childhood and cannot be prevented.

Dr James Walker, a specialist in diabetes care at St John’s Hospital in Livingston, said in the past it was unheard of for teenagers to be diagnosed with type-2. He said many people still do not realise that type-2 diabetes can be prevented – or that it cannot be cured.

He added: “Type-2 diabetes is getting a lot more frequent and the age at which it is being diagnosed is coming down so more younger people are getting it. It used to be called maturity-onset diabetes, but now we are seeing people in their twenties or thirties, sometimes even in their teens, being diagnosed.”

Andy Kerr, the health minister, admitted diabetes would prove to be a timebomb if the Executive’s healthy eating initiatives failed.

But he ruled out screening children for diabetes or rationing healthcare for people diagnosed with type-2 because of their unhealthy lifestyles.

• The Investigation is broadcast on BBC Radio Scotland at 8:50am.

THE EXPERT’S VIEW

OBESITY is a major “staging post” on the route to diabetes, writes Dr Jon Petrie. But it is possible to prevent diabetes in such people at high risk with intensive lifestyle changes.

Once obesity-associated diabetes is established it is, however, rarely possible to break the “vicious cycle”.

There is no doubt that colleagues and I are seeing younger and younger cases of Type 2 diabetes in our clinics across Scotland. These unfortunate souls reflect the tip of a societal iceberg.

Many parents have not gained skills in preparing fresh food as pre-prepared, high-fat food has become ever more convenient and affordable; the number of hours children spend watching TV and playing electronic games has rocketed as technology has improved; and, with pressurised lives, people drive instead of walking to the shops and carrying purchases home.

• Dr Petrie is a reader in diabetic medicine at the University of Dundee and lead clinician with the Diabetes Research Network.