Shortage Of NHS Staff Predicted

There will be a shortage of GPs and nurses in four years’ time, but the NHS will have to shed hospital doctors, leaked government documents show. The prediction of a shortfall of 14,000 nurses was included in the Department of Health paper, it was reported.

The strategy has been labelled a “yo-yo attitude” to planning. The leak comes amid news of extensive job cuts as the NHS tries to save money.

But the government said it was a “prudent and sensible” analysis.

The leaked documents were reported in the Health Service Journal.

The draft version of the NHS pay and workforce strategy for 2008 to 2011 for England showed the health service will experience a shortage of 1,200 GPs, 14,000 nurses and 1,100 junior and staff-grade doctors by 2011.

There will also be 3,200 extra consultants that the NHS cannot afford to pay, as well as 16,000 other health professionals such as physios, health scientists and technicians.

However, it said there will also be volatility in the immediate future with as much as a reduction of 2.7% – nearly 37,000 jobs – in the workforce this year alone.

The draft strategy, discussed by Department of Health officials in December, sets out a series of controversial measures to remedy the situation.

It said nurse pay could be dictated by local market rates, and that unemployment could be used to “create downward pressure on wages”.

The document also suggested a new grade of sub-consultant be created to save money, although this would be “bitterly opposed” by unions.

It also suggested the increased use of temporary staff and short-term contracts.

The shortage of nurses has been put down to cuts made to training budgets as a result of the NHS’s financial problems.

Meanwhile, excess consultant numbers can be explained by the movement of care away from hospitals and into the community.

Dr Jonathan Fielden, chairman of the British Medical Association’s (BMA) consultants’ committee, said cutting consultant posts was “absurd”.

And Janet Davies, director at the Royal College of Nursing, said: “It demonstrates a yo-yo attitude to workforce planning and a complete absence of joined up thinking from the government.

“Quite simply, if the reality of this document matches the leaks, then this is a bad news day for patients and for nurses.”

Shadow health secretary Andrew Lansley said the 2.7% cut this year equated to nearly 37,000 posts, adding: “The effect on morale will be dire.”

And Liberal Democrat health spokesman Norman Lamb added: “It is absurd that newly qualified doctors and nurses are faced with less new jobs due to deficits at the same time as the government is predicting a shortage of nurses and GPs.”

But a Department of Health spokesman said it was about “stabilising” staff numbers.

He added: “It is therefore only prudent and sensible to analyse what the workforce make-up should be to meet those challenges.

“To portray a responsible piece of planning as another ‘crisis for the NHS story’ is alarmist mischief-making on a grand scale.”