End-of-life care demand for dementia patients set to surge, study warns

By Storm Newton, Reporter16th September 2024News EnglandAdult Care, Alzheimers, Dementia, End Of Life Care, News England, Older People, Palliative Care, Social Care

The number of people living with dementia who require end-of-life care is set to “substantially increase” in the coming years, according to a study.

Researchers project anywhere between 399,000 to 676,000 patients will need palliative care by 2040, which is “far greater than previous estimates based on mortality data”.

They urged the Government to “act now” and prioritise investment in health and social care systems and workforce to meet demand.

The Empowering Better End of Life Dementia Care (EMBED-Care) programme, jointly led by University College London and King’s College London, created the projections based on a study that used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) to estimate how many people could be living with dementia by 2040.

The most conservative estimate, based on dementia rates increasing by 2.7% annually, could mean 399,000 patients requiring palliative care by 2040, up from 274,000 in 2018.

A 2.8% increase could mean 676,000 patients will need end-of-life care in 16 years, academics suggest.

Researchers said: “Previous projections of the number of people with dementia who will have palliative care needs in England and Wales were based only on the number of people who died with dementia, and did not take into account people living with dementia.

“Thus, it is likely that the prevalence of palliative care needs among people with dementia in England and Wales has been considerably underestimated.

“Our analysis shows that even if dementia incidence declines between 2018 and 2040, the number of people living with dementia in England and Wales who have palliative care needs will increase substantially by 2040, reaching levels far greater than previous estimates based on mortality data.”

The study, published in Palliative Medicine, follows the publication of a independent NHS review by Lord Darzi last week.

Among his findings were warnings that too much of the NHS budget is being spent in hospitals with too little in the community, with more people living longer in ill-health and struggling to see their family doctor.

Emel Yorganci, lead author and research associate at King’s College London, said: “The current health and social care systems, especially the primary and community care services as highlighted by the Darzi review, are not equipped to provide high-quality care and support to the increasing number of people with dementia and their families.

“The Government must act now and prioritise investing in building health and social care systems and a workforce equipped to deliver palliative care to people affected by dementia in and out of hospitals.”