Wanted: 13,000 Migrants

Scotland needs a sharp increase in immigration to adjust to the needs of an ageing population, according to one of the country’s leading think tanks. Net migration needs to increase the population by 13,000, according to the Scottish Council Foundation (SCF).

That is a threefold increase in the numbers currently being projected by government statisticians, and they say immigrants should include low-skilled workers as well as sought-after graduates.

The findings of a detailed report into Scotland’s workforce challenges are sensitive, as politicians are increasingly nervous about making the case for more immigration.

Scotland has recently seen high levels of migration from central Europe, particularly Poland, meaning its population decline has been halted. But policy-makers see that as a short-term effect resulting from the expansion of the European Union, with few of these young workers expected to stay.

The authors of the SCF report say Scotland needs more control over immigration policy if it is to tackle the major changes in society, but they also argue there are many more changes to respond to a declining and ageing workforce, and to ensure enough workers to support the growing number of older people.

They warn that positive decisions should be made soon, rather than managing the changes as a crisis and filling gaps in the labour market.

“Scotland is in transition towards a new era,” they conclude. “Managing Scotland’s population changes successfully will be as much a matter of culture and mindset as smart policies.”

The report concludes there needs to be increased employment rates, even though Scotland currently has high rates by European standards. Reaching 80% of the working age population means bringing more women into work as well as disabled people and those aged over 50.

The most innovative thinking in the report is to find ways of encouraging older people to stay at work. That is partly by having more flexible working, going part-time and phased retirement. They suggest a reduction in national insurance contributions, to make employment of older workers more attractive to employers.

The report also says there is a need to change career patterns for younger people, allowing them to swap retirement years for mid-career gaps in working, encouraging re-training, time for family care responsibilities, or simply “to recharge their batteries”.

The report’s authors, Linda Boyes, Andrew Harris and Jim McCormick, say there is a need to raise the fertility rate, but warn there is no easy way to do this and that it can be no substitute for immigration. Improved childcare and job flexibility help encourage people to have children in Scandinavian countries with strong support for parents, but that may not be enough.

The best conditions for having families were found to be when people feel there is sustained economic security, and when that is spread throughout the population.

This is the third major report on the challenge of an ageing population to have been published since the start of the year. The Scottish Parliament’s Futures Forum has published a report from a year-long study led by Lord Sutherland of Houndwood, and last Friday, the executive published its strategy for an ageing society.

All have agreed that there should be a more positive attitude towards older people, particularly to their contribution as workers, carers and volunteers.